All of a sudden, our beloved leader has fallen love with our depleted military and our stupid generals. That is what he has said about our military for almost 2 years now. Suddenly, the military isn’t so depleted that he can’t use it as a toy, and our generals are all really smart and “outstanding”.
But, that also leads us to potential “big time” trouble as trump would say. Now that he has fallen love with our military, the next possible target would be North Korea. And, that is where the big time trouble would be.
North Korea is not Syria. North Korea is not Iraq. North Korea already has nuclear weapons. And, they have a child version of trump as their beloved leader who has killed his own family members because he thought they were a threat to his power.
That means that all of the talk about “taking care of North Korea” that trump has been uttering is even more dangerous. We have a carrier group near the peninsula. What if their child killer decides to make a preemptive strike against that group with nuclear weapons? We have thousands of our sailors in harm’s way like we haven’t since the cold war ended.
And a preemptive strike if North Korea should test nuclear bomb places the entire peninsula in danger. Ever since the Korean war ended with its cease-fire, we have treaded carefully there. The leaders of that country have been belligerent for years. They continuously bluster about how great their military is and how wonderful they are. They tell their people that means they would win any war against the south and the U.S.
North Korea has one of the largest standing armies in the world. They are willing and many of the hard-liners are eager to fight. Yes, it is most likely that a war in Korea would result in a win for us and our allies, but at what cost?
Is it worth starting a war because of the behavior of North Korea? You must remember, Seoul is just 35 miles from the North Korean border. There are about 20 million people who live in and around Seoul. That means the city is in range of North Korea’s massive artillery. That means even using conventional weapons, the North could kill millions of South Koreans.
Don’t forget our forces stationed in South Korea either or the American business people who live and work in Seoul. On top of that, South Korea is the 11th largest economy in the world. If there is a war, the country would be devastated and need to rebuild again costing billions of dollars.
Every year the U.S. and South Korea holds exercises in the country. One of the objectives is to determine what would happen if a war did break out on the peninsula. All of the exercises so far has shown there is no good option for a war.
Something does need to be done about getting North Korea to get rid of their nuclear weapons. But, is war the answer? It may come to that point. But are we there yet? For the first time, China is starting to put pressure on North Korea where it hurts. North Korea gets most of their money from selling coal to China. China just sent back all of their coal shipments and told North Korea to keep them.
China is not looking forward to a war in Korea either. Assuming that the U.S. and its allies would eventually win such a war, do you really think that China wants a border with a unified Korea that is backed by the U.S. with possibly U.S. troops on its border? Which means, would China decide to send troops in if North Korea is on the brink of defeat as they did in the 1950s?
Then we have the agreement with South Korea. In that agreement we are not supposed to use any military force against North Korea without consulting South Korea first. The people in South Korea are getting very nervous as tensions on the peninsula rise.
Even if we do consult with South Korea, what if they say they don’t want the U.S. to use a preemptive attack on the North? Do we ignore our ally and do it anyway? Will our beloved leader play chicken with the lives of millions of our ally’s people?
And, what about Japan? Japan is already in reach of North Korea’s missiles. What happens if the North decides to attack Japan as well? There is no doubt that Japan will retaliate, and we will have no choice but support our ally there as well.
Finally, what about our own Congress? Any attack against North Korea would be considered an act of war against a foreign country. Only Congress has the authority to declare such action. So, an unannounced preemptive attack by the administration against North Korea would be unConstitutional.
So I hope beloved leader is consulting with the leaders of Congress right now and letting them know what he is planning on doing. Otherwise, he will break the law if he goes ahead with a preemptive strike.
But, more than that, we need to look at and understand what other enemies might do if we attack North Korea. What might Russia do? What might Iran do? Will Russia take a preemptive strike against North Korea as a sign they can go ahead and invade Ukraine? Maybe Iran will decide it is a good time to invade Iraq to take over that country?
Maybe Iran would think it is a good time to actually attack Israel. What then? That could totally destabilize the mid-east. Then we would be looking at war across the board.
Handling North Korea is not the same as bullying your political opponents. It is not the same as sending missiles into Syria after telling the Russians and Syrians to leave the area. It isn’t the same as dropping a huge bomb on ISIS.
We are talking about striking a country that has a large and competent army. We are talking about striking a country with a leader even more unstable than our leader. We are talking about a real war with potentially tens of millions of people being killed.
All of the talking heads, especially on the right are talking about how trump is learning on job and getting better. I wrote yesterday I don’t agree with that analysis. I still don’t. We will get a real understanding what trump has learned and whether or not he has any idea of what his job is when we see how he handles North Korea.
If he continues with his “gut” and makes a rash decision concerning this situation, it cold spell disaster for the Korean peninsula and for the world. If it is true that trump only listens to and does what the last person he speaks to says, we better hope a sane person is that last one.
This weekend Christians are celebrating Easter. Jews are celebrating Passover. North Korea is celebrating the 105th birthday of the country’s founder. The first two celebrations are celebrations of peace. The third is a celebration of dictatorship. The third could be the only one worth watching. Will North Korea simply hold their parade and go home, or will they do something like test another nuclear weapon, launch test missiles, or launch a preemptive attack on our carrier group or South Korea?
The first two scenarios would be bad, but not something to start a war over. The last two would mean war. And, how trump reacts to one of the first two scenarios could also mean war. We can only hope that cooler saner heads prevail. Unfortunately, the actions so far from these two leaders don’t give us too much confidence.
We can only watch and wait. Despite all of the stupidity in the world over the last 70 years, this is the closest we have come to worldwide disaster since the Cuban Missile Crisis. We averted that disaster because there were two leaders who understood the consequences. Both leaders were able to overrule their hawkish military leaders. Does trump have the guts to say no to his Generals like Kennedy did? Will he even order them to get clearance from him before launching any attack against North Korea?
This issue is way beyond politics or trying to look and talk tough. This is a situation that could lead to life and death for millions of people. This is when real leaders stand up and resist primal instincts to simply attack. Rational thought needs to be used. That is where our problem is. We haven’t seen a lot of rational thought from trump so far. If he really is learning his job, now is the time to show that he has learned to rationally think.