Earlier this week, when Brewers 1B Prince Fielder shoved P Manny Parra during a 6-3 loss to Cincinnati, all the coverage (in print, and on ESPN, etc.) was about how the Brewers were a team in “free fall” and about how awful things were going suddenly, and about how just a week earlier the team had been tied for first with the Cubs, but was now five games back. This narrative, in my estimation, seriously lacked perspective.
The truth of the matter is, the point at which the Brewers supposedly “hit bottom” was actually the point at which they leveled out to more or less where they’ve been for some time. The anomaly, in fact, was the high point for the Brewers, when they had tied the Cubs on July 26 — this happened after a stretch during which the Brewers had won nine of their last ten, including a season-long 8 games in a row, a pace which nobody really expected them to continue. At the same time, the Cubs had been in an unusual slump, losing seven of their last ten.
What happens, then, if we compare Aug. 4, the supposed “bottoming-out” point for Milwaukee, with the All-Star Break, widely considered to be a good breaking point for evaluating where teams are? Let’s have a look.
Aug 4:
| Pos | Team | W | L | Pct | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cubs | 67 | 46 | 0.593 | – |
| 2 | Brewers | 62 | 51 | 0.549 | 5 |
| 3 | Cardinals | 62 | 52 | 0.544 | 5.5 |
Now, what about the All-Star break, three weeks earlier?
Jul 13:
| Pos | Team | W | L | Pct | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cubs | 57 | 38 | 0.600 | – |
| 2 | Cardinals | 53 | 43 | 0.552 | 4.5 |
| 3 | Brewers | 52 | 43 | 0.547 | 5 |
So, when we look at it, what had happened to the Brewers between the All-Star break and their supposed “bottoming” out? They had kept pace with the Cubs, they had slightly improved their winning percentage, and they had surpassed the Cardinals for second place in the division. Hardly a “bottom out” in my estimation.
Yes, they got swept at home by the Cubs in a four-game set, and yes that was tough. I whined about it myself. But these things happen, and they don’t constitute a team in some sort of free-fall, especially when there are still two months of baseball left to be played. Still, let’s not let a few facts and some rational analysis get in the way of a compelling story line…
(Side note: As of Aug. 6, all three teams have won two more games, and their winning percentages are exactly what they were at the All-Star break, except for Milwaukee, which has a slightly better percentage.)
leanleft
Kevin
tgirsch
Kevin T. Keith
Judd
Yeah – baseball media has forever been enamored with the novel distribution patterns of events moreso than general statistical trends. No place is this more evident than Joe D.’s magical hit streak. Not taking anything away from him, but as I’ve noted before he was out-hit .412 to .408 by Ted Williams over those exact 56 games. The point is, there is a high degree of randomness to any individual (or small sample of) trial(s). It takes a long time for teams to settle at what is more or less a record that accurately represents their talent, same for individual players. Peaks and valleys provide good storylines for the dailies, but they are relatively meaningless and highly random.
The real stories along these lines should center around teams that over or underplay their pythagorean win percentage. Runs scored and runs surrendered have proven highly accurate in terms of predicting a team’s overall record. If a team is outperforming its Pyth, there’s a good chance a fall is coming, and if they are underperforming, chances are bad luck has plagued them and a turnaround is ahead. Mil and Stl have outperformed by 4 and 3 games respectively, while the Cubs are 2 wins shy of theirs.
It’s pretty rare teams exceed/underachieve these projections by more than 5 games over the course of a whole season. Right now the teams with the greatest disparity between projected W/L and actual are:
LAA +9
TB +6
FLA +5
TEX +5
ATL -7
CLE -7
SEA -6
OAK -5